ON THE MARCH: How long can the UK hold out against a hike to 20% VAT, asks Richard Asquith. August 2009
In a stark warning to all countries facing spiralling debt, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are all now looking at further VAT increases to help shore up their faltering finances. They join other countries such as Ireland and Hungary forced into recent crisis VAT hikes, with a number Western countries seemingly certain to follow.
Global recession crushes progressive tax regimes
All three Baltic former Soviet states had undertaken extensive reforms in their financial systems. This included introducing various flat rate tax systems where income, corporate and VAT rates were simplified at similar levels, with limited tax bands. VAT was set at 18% in all three upon succession to the European Union. Coming on the back of hugely expansionary economic policies, these advanced fiscal systems were widely praised as the way forward for countries seeking to attract foreign investment. However, the current economic meltdown now seems certain to derail this strategy.
Faced with spiralling government debt and currency markets actively speculating on debt defaults, a number of states have been forced into VAT rises. Leading the charge at the end of 2008 was Latvia and Lithuania, raising their standard VAT rates by 3% and 2%, respectively. It has now become clear that these rises will not be sufficient. The Parliaments of both countries have now approved further rises of up to 23%. This will take both states perilously close to the 25% EU VAT limit.
Estonia last year resisted an increase, but has been forced into an emergency 2% increase from 1st July 2009 as its economic picture worsens.
A warning for all of Europe
The Baltics will not be the last European country to face VAT increases. Ireland, another country suffering from a burst property bubble, has already increased its VAT by 0.5% to 21.5% in late 2008. Hungary, whose population is saddled with Euro mortgages which are becoming unsupportable with the sinking Forint, increased its VAT rate by a dramatic 5% to 25% on 1st July.
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